Viewpoints Secular Stars: Why India and Indonesia Are Set to Shine as Global Economic Leaders We believe the two resource-rich economies – once labeled fragile – will be global growth leaders over the next several years, driven by prudent policies and stable macro fundamentals.
In 2013, India and Indonesia were notoriously named among the so-called “Fragile Five” emerging market (EM) economies that depend heavily on foreign investment to finance growth.Footnote1 A decade later, their fortunes have flipped: The two Asian nations are now seen as rising secular stars amid a challenging global economic outlook.Growth in India is expected to outpace that of China this year and next – with Indonesia following closely behind in third place among major economies – according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). In 2023, the OECD forecasts India to grow 6%, China to expand 5.4%, and Indonesia to grow 4.7%, while the global economy grows 2.7%.Footnote2 To Read the Full Article Log In Or Register
Viewpoints Asia Market Outlook 2023: Regional Resilience Amid Strained Global Markets As the COVID-19 recovery continues, we expect Asia’s growth-inflation dynamics to diverge from the rest of the world, led by China’s long-awaited economic reopening.
Viewpoints Local Government Financing Vehicles: A Growing Risk for China’s Economy? We believe idiosyncratic credit events may occur over the next 12 months, but systemic bank risk is remote.
Viewpoints Opportunities in Private Credit: Stepping In as Banks Step Out As banks pull back from many types of lending, demand for capital is outpacing supply, providing the best potential opportunities in private credit since the GFC.