Private Markets: Early Innings for Asset Based Lending

Text on screen: PIMCO

Footer Overlay: PIMCO provides services only to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized

Text on screen: Anna Dragesic, HEAD OF GLOBAL CREDIT PRODUCT STRATEGIES

Dragesic: I want to discuss the balance sheet strength of consumers and corporates. How does it look right now? Where is the trend going? And then also, are there areas where there's just excesses that we should be aware of?

Text on screen: Daniel J. Ivascyn, GROUP CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER

Ivascyn: Yeah, regulators don't like to bail out the same sectors twice. And I think this is important. And we talked a lot about this at the Secular Forum. The post global financial crisis regulation has really set the stage for a lot of attractive asset allocation decisions even today. If you look at debt levels on a global basis, a lot of debt has found its way on the sovereign balance sheet. The segments of the corporate arena, particularly some of the floating rate, lower quality credit markets where you've seen leverage go up and go up quite significantly. The household balance sheet, though, has witnessed significant deleveraging. A lot of that, again, is related to all this post global financial crisis regulation on consumer lending, on mortgage lending. But you have a situation today where fundamentals are very, very strong in that sector. Yet you've seen pretty aggressive growth in terms of leverage in other areas of the market.

So we think that this does set the stage for attractive opportunities.

FULL PAGE GRAPHIC TITLE: Uncovering opportunity in consumer related lending

The bar chart on the left shows corporate (non-IG) lending in 2009 at $235 billion in 2009. The bar chart on the right shows corporate non-IG lending rising to $1.7 trillion in 2024, a 623% increase. The second chart shows corporate non-IG lending increasing to nearly $3 trillion in total potential.

A third bar chart shows corporate lending in the late stages on the left bar at $200 billion. The bar on the right shows asset-based lending in early innings with a market size of $20 trillion.

When you look even at relative growth within this opportunity set, you see a situation where, again, more aggressive corporate lending has grown almost exponentially since the global financial crisis. A very small sector just 15 years ago now $3 trillion or so today, while again, asset backed lending, consumer related lending has been kept in check and where credit quality is very, very strong. So again, a fairly straightforward and simple asset allocation decision.

We're reflecting this across PIMCO, more traditional portfolios, public portfolios, private portfolios. We think looking out five years, there's going to be incredibly attractive areas to build a resilient, high-quality portfolio and avoid some of the froth and some of the excess that's developed in areas that made it through the GFC relatively unscathed and therefore has escaped some of that scrutiny.

Dragesic: Let's keep it on lending. And if you think about regulation, the regional bank challenges we've seen, they've created an opportunity for investors to step in where banks are. Can you further explain this dynamic and how the retrenchment of banks is creating opportunities?

Ivascyn: Yeah, and I think there's at least two reasons for this. The first, what I just mentioned a moment ago, which is that banks were heavily regulated coming out of the global financial crisis. Aggressive lending from the banks caused a lot of the problems that needed to be dealt with. So we're still feeling the reverberations of some of that activity. And it's leading to banks either being less involved in markets they used to be quite involved in. And more recently, this aftershock coming from this significant increase in policy rates has led to further fragility across the regional banks. So this has created a little bit of volatility. With volatility typically comes opportunity. And we're seeing a steady flow of assets coming from the regional banks, high quality assets, assets more appropriate for private strategies. And we expect this to continue.

Text on screen: For more insights and information visit pimco.com

Text on screen: PIMCO

Disclosure

This discussion is provided for informational purposes only and is not based on any particular financial situation or need. There can be no assurance that any investment strategy or portfolio will achieve its objective or that the desired results will be realized. 

All investments contain risk and may lose value. Alternative investment strategies involve a high degree or risk. They can be highly leveraged, speculative and volatile and an investor cold lose all or a substantial amount of an investment. Investments in residential/commercial mortgage loans and commercial real estate debt are subject to risks that include prepayment, delinquency, foreclosure, risks of loss, servicing risks and adverse regulatory developments, which risks may be heightened in the case of non-performing loans. Investments in mortgage and asset-backed securities are highly complex instruments that may be sensitive to changes in interest rates and subject to early repayment risk. Private credit involves an investment in non-publically traded securities which may be subject to illiquidity risk. Portfolios that invest in private credit may be leveraged and may engage in speculative investment practices that increase the risk of investment loss. Investing in banks and related entities is a highly complex field subject to extensive regulation, and investments in such entities or other operating companies may give rise to control person liability and other risks.

Statements concerning financial market trends or portfolio strategies are based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate. There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest for the long term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. Outlook and strategies are subject to change without notice.

This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed.

PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This is not an offer to any person in any jurisdiction where unlawful or unauthorized. | Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, 650 Newport Center Drive, Newport Beach, CA 92660 is regulated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission. | PIMCO Europe Ltd (Company No. 2604517, 11 Baker Street, London W1U 3AH, United Kingdom) is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (12 Endeavour Square, London E20 1JN) in the UK. The services provided by PIMCO Europe Ltd are not available to retail investors, who should not rely on this communication but contact their financial adviser. . Since PIMCO Europe Ltd services and products are provided exclusively to professional clients, the appropriateness of such is always affirmed. | PIMCO Europe GmbH (Company No. 192083, Seidlstr. 24-24a, 80335 Munich, Germany), PIMCO Europe GmbH Italian Branch (Company No. 10005170963, via Turati nn. 25/27 (angolo via Cavalieri n. 4), 20121 Milano, Italy), PIMCO Europe GmbH Irish Branch (Company No. 909462, 57B Harcourt Street Dublin D02 F721, Ireland), PIMCO Europe GmbH UK Branch (Company No. FC037712, 11 Baker Street, London W1U 3AH, UK), PIMCO Europe GmbH Spanish Branch (N.I.F. W2765338E, Paseo de la Castellana 43, Oficina 05-111, 28046 Madrid, Spain) and PIMCO Europe GmbH French Branch (Company No. 918745621 R.C.S. Paris, 50–52 Boulevard Haussmann, 75009 Paris, France) are authorised and regulated by the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority (BaFin) (Marie- Curie-Str. 24-28, 60439 Frankfurt am Main) in Germany in accordance with Section 15 of the German Securities Institutions Act (WpIG). The Italian Branch, Irish Branch, UK Branch, Spanish Branch and French Branch are additionally supervised by: (1) Italian Branch: the Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (CONSOB) (Giovanni Battista Martini, 3 - 00198 Rome) in accordance with Article 27 of the Italian Consolidated Financial Act; (2) Irish Branch: the Central Bank of Ireland (New Wapping Street, North Wall Quay, Dublin 1 D01 F7X3) in accordance with Regulation 43 of the European Union (Markets in Financial Instruments) Regulations 2017, as amended; (3) UK Branch: the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (12 Endeavour Square, London E20 1JN); (4) Spanish Branch: the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV) (Edison, 4, 28006 Madrid) in accordance with obligations stipulated in articles 168 and  203  to 224, as well as obligations contained in Tile V, Section I of the Law on the Securities Market (LSM) and in articles 111, 114 and 117 of Royal Decree 217/2008, respectively and (5) French Branch: ACPR/Banque de France (4 Place de Budapest, CS 92459, 75436 Paris Cedex 09) in accordance with Art. 35 of Directive 2014/65/EU on markets in financial instruments and under the surveillance of ACPR and AMF. The services provided by PIMCO Europe GmbH are available only to professional clients as defined in Section 67 para. 2 German Securities Trading Act (WpHG). They are not available to individual investors, who should not rely on this communication. According to Art. 56 of Regulation (EU) 565/2017, an investment company is entitled to assume that professional clients possess the necessary knowledge and experience to understand the risks associated with the relevant investment services or transactions. Since PIMCO Europe GMBH services and products are provided exclusively to professional clients, the appropriateness of such is always affirmed. | PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH (registered in Switzerland, Company No. CH-020.4.038.582-2, Brandschenkestrasse 41 Zurich 8002, Switzerland). According to the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act of 23 June 2006 (“CISA”), an investment company is entitled to assume that professional clients possess the necessary knowledge and experience to understand the risks associated with the relevant investment services or transactions. Since PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH services and products are provided exclusively to professional clients, the appropriateness of such is always affirmed. The services provided by PIMCO (Schweiz) GmbH are not available to retail investors, who should not rely on this communication but contact their financial adviser. | PIMCO Asia Pte Ltd (8 Marina View, #30-01, Asia Square Tower 1, Singapore 018960, Registration No. 199804652K) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore as a holder of a capital markets services licence and an exempt financial adviser. The asset management services and investment products are not available to persons where provision of such services and products is unauthorised. | PIMCO Asia Limited (Suite 2201, 22nd Floor, Two International Finance Centre, No. 8 Finance Street, Central, Hong Kong) is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission for Types 1, 4 and 9 regulated activities under the Securities and Futures Ordinance. PIMCO Asia Limited is registered as a cross-border discretionary investment manager with the Financial Supervisory Commission of Korea (Registration No. 08-02-307). The asset management services and investment products are not available to persons where provision of such services and products is unauthorised. | PIMCO Investment Management (Shanghai) Limited. Office address: Suite 7204, Shanghai Tower, 479 Lujiazui Ring Road, Pudong, Shanghai 200120, China (Unified social credit code: 91310115MA1K41MU72) is registered with Asset Management Association of China as Private Fund Manager (Registration No. P1071502, Type: Other). | PIMCO Australia Pty Ltd ABN 54 084 280 508, AFSL 246862. This publication has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of investors. Before making an investment decision, investors should obtain professional advice and consider whether the information contained herein is appropriate having regard to their objectives, financial situation and needs. To the extent it involves Pacific Investment Management Co LLC (PIMCO LLC) providing financial services to wholesale clients, PIMCO LLC is exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence in respect of financial services provided to wholesale clients in Australia. PIMCO LLC is regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission under US laws, which differ from Australian laws. | PIMCO Japan Ltd, Financial Instruments Business Registration Number is Director of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Financial Instruments Firm) No. 382. PIMCO Japan Ltd is a member of Japan Investment Advisers Association, The Investment Trusts Association, Japan and Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association. All investments contain risk. There is no guarantee that the principal amount of the investment will be preserved, or that a certain return will be realized; the investment could suffer a loss. All profits and losses incur to the investor. The amounts, maximum amounts and calculation methodologies of each type of fee and expense and their total amounts will vary depending on the investment strategy, the status of investment performance, period of management and outstanding balance of assets and thus such fees and expenses cannot be set forth herein. | PIMCO Taiwan Limited is an independently operated and managed company. The reference number of business license of the company approved by the competent authority is (112) Jin Guan Tou Gu Xin Zi No. 015 . The registered address of the company is 40F., No.68, Sec. 5, Zhongxiao East Rd., Xinyi District, Taipei City 110, Taiwan (R.O.C.), and the telephone number is +886 2 8729-5500. | PIMCO Canada Corp. (199 Bay Street, Suite 2050, Commerce Court Station, P.O. Box 363, Toronto, ON, M5L 1G2) services and products may only be available in certain provinces or territories of Canada and only through dealers authorized for that purpose. | Note to Readers in Colombia: This document is provided through the representative office of Pacific Investment Management Company LLC located at Carrera 7 No. 71-52 TB Piso 9, Bogota D.C. (Promoción y oferta de los negocios y servicios del mercado de valores por parte de Pacific Investment Management Company LLC, representada en Colombia.). Note to Readers in Brazil: PIMCO Latin America Administradora de Carteiras Ltda.Av. Brg. Faria Lima, 3477 Itaim Bibi, São Paulo - SP 04538-132 Brazil. Note to Readers in Argentina: This document may be provided through the representative office of PIMCO Global Advisors LLC AVENIDA CORRIENTES, 299, Buenos Aires, Argentina. | No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America LLC in the United States and throughout the world. ©2024, PIMCO.

CMR2024-0625-3666765