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Challenges to Fed Independence
Although President Trump has said he has no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell, the Trump administration may be testing the laws underpinning Fed independence.
The outlook for U.S. growth and inflation hinges on the ability of U.S. supply chains to pivot out of China fairly quickly, a process that won’t be seamless.
The president has signaled some flexibility on tariffs but remains committed to his broader trade policy agenda.
Recent market turbulence underscores a shifting global outlook as tariffs usher in a new economic era.
We see significant implications for U.S. and global growth and inflation.
Tariff policies have the potential to drive stagflation in the U.S. and contraction in other countries, and to complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary decisions.
While the path may have twists and turns, the destination seems clear: higher U.S. tariffs.
Mounting risks to growth and inflation have the Federal Reserve taking a cautious approach to monetary policy.
ECB: It Will Get Harder From Here
The European Central Bank will likely continue to cut interest rates, but future decisions could be more contentious.
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