Libby Cantrill
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Even with Republicans poised to control the White House, the Senate, and the House of Representatives, slim congressional majorities could hinder the president’s efforts to enact his agenda.
With Vice President Kamala Harris likely to be the Democratic nominee, the race for the White House has shifted and congressional Democratic prospects have improved.
Regardless of the U.S. presidential election’s outcome, the budget deficit will likely remain high, but market confidence in U.S. Treasuries is expected to remain stable.
Debt levels will likely continue to rise absent policy changes, and the yield curve is likely to steepen.
We remain constructive on a deal coming together in time to avert a default on U.S. debt, though we expect continued drama in the very near term.
Debt ceiling concerns are rippling through financial markets. We discuss the potential risks and opportunities for investors.
We believe Congress will reach an agreement before the debt limit is reached, but markets could face turbulence later this year.
A split U.S. Congress in 2023 will likely limit fiscal policy, but could be positive for equity markets.
U.S. Mid-Term Election Outlook
Libby Cantrill, head of public policy, discusses the current U.S. political environment, how we think the mid-term elections are likely to go, and what it could mean for fiscal policy and the markets.