Asset Class Diversification Is Not the Same as Risk Factor Diversification
Even highly diversified portfolios may not adequately cushion market volatility. Understanding the underlying risk factors that many asset classes share can help investors create a more efficient, risk-managed portfolio.
What these charts show
Portfolios may contain unintentional risk. The portfolio shown here is broadly diversified across asset classes, but in fact has a very concentrated exposure to underlying equity risk. It is important to note that diversification cannot ensure a profit or protect against loss in a declining market. It is a strategy used to help mitigate risk.
What it means for investors
Portfolio solutions need to take an allocation approach that looks beyond asset class labels and focuses instead on risk factors – the underlying risk exposures that ultimately drive investment returns.
What this chart shows
Different asset classes often share the same underlying risk factors, which explains the majority of their returns. The chart shows the degree of various risk factor exposure across asset classes. For example, broad equity risk factors are present in a wide range of investments.
What it means for investors
A truly diversified strategy should look beyond asset class labels – first identifying risks that deliver the desired return potential, and then selecting a mix of asset classes that provide efficient exposure to those risks. This allows investors to avoid risk factors believed to be overvalued or carrying excessive downside potential.
Disclosures
Unless stated otherwise, information contained herein is as of 30 June 2024. The information may be stale and should not be relied upon.
Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results.
Investing in the bond market is subject to risks, including market, interest rate, issuer, credit, inflation risk, and liquidity risk. The value of most bonds and bond strategies are impacted by changes in interest rates. Bonds and bond strategies with longer durations tend to be more sensitive and volatile than those with shorter durations; bond prices generally fall as interest rates rise, and the current low interest rate environment increases this risk. Current reductions in bond counterparty capacity may contribute to decreased market liquidity and increased price volatility. Bond investments may be worth more or less than the original cost when redeemed. Equities may decline in value due to both real and perceived general market, economic and industry conditions.Investing in foreign-denominated and/or -domiciled securities may involve heightened risk due to currency fluctuations, and economic and political risks, which may be enhanced in emerging markets. Commodities contain heightened risk, including market, political, regulatory and natural conditions, and may not be suitable for all investors. REITs are subject to risk, such as poor performance by the manager, adverse changes to tax laws or failure to qualify for tax-free pass-through of income. Currency rates may fluctuate significantly over short periods of time and may reduce the returns of a portfolio.
There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market. No representation is being made that any account, investment product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those shown. Investors should consult their investment professional prior to making an investment decision
The asset class exposure model presented herein for illustrative purposes only. The allocation model is based on: ■ Global Equities represented by MSCI All Country World (ACWI) Index. ■ Fixed Income represented by Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Index. ■ Global Bonds represented by Bloomberg Global Aggregate USD-Hedged Index. ■ TIPS represented by Bloomberg U.S. TIPS Index. ■ Private Equity represented by Cambridge Associate U.S. Private Equity Index. ■ Hedge Funds represented by HRFI Fund of Funds: Diversified Index. ■ Real Estate represented by NCREIF Property Index. ■ Commodities represented by Bloomberg Commodity TR Index. ■ Cash represented by 3-Month USD Libor Index. It is not possible to invest directly in an unmanaged index.
Hypothetical illustrations have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve results similar to those shown. In fact there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical results and actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In additional, hypothetical scenarios do not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical illustration can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation if any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of a hypothetical illustration and all of which can adversely affect actual results.
The portfolio analysis is based on the indices shown and no representation is being made that the structure of the average portfolio or any account will remain the same or that similar returns will be achieved. Results shown may not be attained and should not be construed as the only possibilities that exist. Different weightings in the asset allocation illustration will produce different results. Actual results will vary and are subject to change with market conditions. There is no guarantee that results will be achieved. No fees or expenses were included in the estimated results and distribution. The scenarios assume a set of assumptions that may, individually or collectively, not develop over time. The analysis reflected in this information is based upon data at time of analysis. Forecasts, estimates, and certain information contained herein are based upon proprietary research and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product.
PIMCO routinely reviews, modifies, and adds risk factors to its proprietary models. Due to the dynamic nature of factors affecting markets, there is no guarantee that simulations will capture all relevant risk factors or that the implementation of any resulting solutions will protect against loss. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Simulated risk analysis contains inherent limitations and is generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. Realized losses may be larger than predicted by a given model due to additional factors that cannot be accurately forecasted or incorporated into a model based on historical or assumed data.
We employed a block bootstrap methodology to calculate volatilities. We start by computing historical factor returns that underlie each asset class proxy from January 1997 through the present date. We then draw a set of 12 monthly returns within the dataset to come up with an annual return number. This process is repeated 25,000 times to have a return series with 25,000 annualized returns. The standard deviation of these annual returns is used to model the volatility for each factor. We then use the same return series for each factor to compute covariance between factors. Finally, volatility of each asset class proxy is calculated as the sum of variances and covariance of factors that underlie that particular proxy. For each asset class, index, or strategy proxy, we will look at either a point in time estimate or historical average of factor exposures in order to determine the total volatility. Please contact your PIMCO representative for more details on how specific proxy factor exposures are estimated.
PIMCO as a general matter provides services to qualified institutions, financial intermediaries and institutional investors. Individual investors should contact their own financial professional to determine the most appropriate investment options for their financial situation. This material contains the opinions of the manager and such opinions are subject to change without notice. This material has been distributed for informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice or a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission. PIMCO is a trademark of Allianz Asset Management of America LLC in the United States and throughout the world.
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