Allison Boxer
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Recent economic data support the Federal Reserve’s meeting-by-meeting approach to rate cuts.
We believe the Fed is on a path to continue to cut rates over the next several meetings to realign monetary policy with a now more “normal” U.S. economy.
The central bank’s latest policy statement and Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks suggest that an initial interest rate cut could come as soon as September.
A second straight month of encouraging U.S. core CPI data supports an initial Federal Reserve rate cut as early as September.
Good news on U.S. inflation in May did not sway the Federal Reserve to signal interest rate cuts could come sooner.
Regardless of the U.S. presidential election’s outcome, the budget deficit will likely remain high, but market confidence in U.S. Treasuries is expected to remain stable.
A timely discussion on the term premium, which may be signaling the possibility of rising compensation for bond investors as the yield curve potentially re-steepens.
April’s U.S. inflation report likely offers some comfort to Federal Reserve officials, but rate cuts are unlikely until we see a more substantial deceleration in inflation.
The Fed: Stuck On Hold for Now
Despite the reacceleration of inflation and enduring labor market strength, the Fed remains focused on downside risks.