過去兩年的快速升息並未造成美國房價下跌，反而因為抑制了市場上待售房屋的供給，而支撐了美國房市。我們認為，供需仍將持續失衡，支撐房價的進一步上漲以及租金的通膨。
有幾個因素限制了供給，包括「鎖定效應(lock-in effect)」，也就是持有較低房貸利率的屋主，不願意賣掉現有房屋去買利率較高的新屋。我們認為鎖定效應將持續。預期未來幾年內的多戶型住宅建案將縮減，加速房市供給的短缺。
我們將透過觀察幾項即將公布的房市供給數據來監測市場狀況。我們預期房價將保持韌性，因此我們在PIMCO認為住宅房貸抵押債券的投資機會具吸引力。我們相信在目前較高利率的環境下，美國房價整體而言在未來3年可能會以低雙位數的百分比上漲。
較高利率限制供給
自疫情開始以來，美國房地產市場的動態已經歷了劇烈的變化，當時貨幣刺激政策將房貸利率推至歷史低點，帶動一波購房和再融資的浪潮。在隨後的幾個月裡，財政刺激政策支撐了美國經濟；同時，美國人普遍重新評估他們期望的生活和工作地點，導致許多地區的房價出現前所未有的攀升。
從那之後，聯準會為了對抗通膨而大幅提高利率，房貸利率也攀升至20年新高。隨著對房屋的負擔能力大幅下降，購屋貸款申請也降至歷史新低。根據美國房地產經紀人協會的數據，經季節性調整後的現有房屋銷售率從疫情高峰的650萬下降至10月份的379萬。我們預期將會進一步下降至350萬到375萬。
然而，銷售的減少並未導致房價的大幅下降。根據CoreLogic的數據，美國多數地區的房價從2022年峰值下降大約3%之後，現在已經再度回到歷史高峰。矛盾的是，除了比預期更強勁的消費之外，較高利率也透過以下機制，支撐了房價的韌性：
1.鎖定效應
屋主同時享受到強勁的房價上漲以及實質利率為負的房屋貸款融資。圖1顯示市場房貸利率和家戶融資住房利率之間的差異。在正常時期，這個差距會小於半個百分點；現在則約為4個百分點。
任何房貸利率在3%左右的屋主都會受到經濟抑制出售這棟房屋，並且以超過7%的利率買下另外一棟。理論上，這種「保持不動」的市場將會同時影響供給與需求，因為一個想要行動、但尚未行動的人，並不會創造額外需求。
然而，我們認為放棄低廉貸款利率的不利因素，也影響了因人生事件（例如死亡、搬遷、離婚）或轉移到租金市場所應釋出的房屋數量，因此降低了淨供給量。歷史上，可用供給量一直是房價上漲的關鍵預測指標。鑑於目前的低供給水準，我們預期價格將強勁地上漲。
2.營建與多戶型住宅
多戶型住宅的高供給量是房地場市場的一線曙光，尤其是對租屋者來說。今年新的多戶型住宅單位交屋速度創下紀錄，減輕了部分租金價格的壓力。
然而，由於高利率阻礙了新多戶型住宅的融資，預計交屋量將在12至15個月才會開始正常化（見圖2）。從2026年開始，這種多戶型住宅供給預計急遽下降，這可能會加劇長期的房屋短缺。
3.房地產市場與衰退
除了全球金融海嘯外，在過去的衰退中，房地產市場通常表現良好（見圖3）。部份的原因是聯準會一般傾向在經濟衰退時降息，投資人同時會投入債券，進而使殖利率下降。這會影響到房貸利率，並且做為房地產市場的緩衝。
有人可能會認為，若經濟出現衰退，鎖定效應導致的供給增加，將超過因可負擔性變高而額外增加的需求。然而，我們認為目前市場上的貸款利率遠高於實際價值，所以這不太可能發生：如果貸款利率降至5%，邊際買家的負擔能力將大幅提高；但握有3%房貸利率的潛在賣家不會願意放棄這樣的低利率。
4.監控供給
在這樣的環境中，我們認為監控額外的供給來源是重點。在既有房屋上，我們密切注意區域和大都會區層面的待售房屋庫存、新售房屋的數量、吸收率，以及其他包括降價頻率、成交價格和上市價格等比較數據。
在新成屋上，我們傾向觀察不同完工階段待售房屋的存量，以及完工率開工率與預期家戶形成率之間的比較。建商和獨立式住宅租賃業者的結果和評論也能提供有關供給速度的有用資訊。
投資啟示：房屋價格上漲和租金通膨可能持續對抗較高利率
考量這些因素，我們相信美國房地產市場的供需平衡將持續創造房價上揚的強勁環境。由於住房持續的結構性短缺以及可負擔性的挑戰，迫使更多家戶轉往租屋市場，相較於疫情前，租金通膨也會維持在高檔。
在PIMCO，我們持續偏好住宅房貸抵押債券。我們認為房價將會持續「更高更久」地上揚，也使得住宅信用債成為能適應各種情境的強韌策略。
Any homeowner with a mortgage rate around 3% has a large economic disincentive to sell that home and buy another at a rate over 7%. In theory, this “staying in place” market should affect supply and demand equally, given that the same people who would have moved but haven’t also don’t create additional demand.
Yet we believe the disincentive of giving up a low mortgage rate also affects the number of homes that would have been placed on market due to life events (e.g. deaths, relocations, divorces), or for a move to the rental market, therefore decreasing net supply. Historically, available supply has been a key predictor of home price appreciation, leading us to expect strong appreciation given current low supply levels.
2. Construction and multifamily
High multifamily supply has been a silver lining in the housing market, especially for renters. This year is on pace for record delivery of new multifamily units, alleviating some rental price pressures.
However, deliveries are expected to start normalizing in 12-15 months as higher rates hinder financing of new multifamily construction (see Figure 2). In 2026 onward, this multifamily supply is slated to drop sharply, which could worsen the secular housing shortage.
3. Housing and recession
In past recessions aside from the global financial crisis, the housing market has generally held up well (see Figure 3). This is in part because the U.S. Federal Reserve typically cuts interest rates in a recession, while investors seek out bonds, pushing yields lower. That passes through to mortgage rates and acts as a shock absorber for housing.
One could argue that, if a recession were to occur, the increase in supply due to an easing lock-in effect would outweigh additional demand arising from affordability gains. However, we think this is unlikely given how far out of the money current market-rate mortgages are: If mortgage rates fall to 5%, affordability for the marginal buyer would greatly improve, yet potential sellers with a 3% mortgage would remain reluctant to give that up.
4. Monitoring the supply
In this environment, we believe it is important to monitor sources of additional supply. For existing homes, we carefully watch inventories of homes for sale, the number of new listings, absorption rates, and other metrics such as the frequency of price reductions and transaction prices compared with listing prices, including at the regional and metropolitan statistical area levels.
For new homes, we favor watching inventories of homes for sale at different completion levels, as well as the rate of completions versus starts and expected household formation. Results and comments from home builders and single family rental operators can also provide useful information on the pace of supply.
Implications: Both home price gains and rental inflation can continue to defy higher rates
Considering these factors, we believe the U.S. housing supply-demand imbalance could continue to create a strong environment for home price appreciation. Rental inflation may also remain elevated relative to the pre-pandemic period, as the structural shortage of shelter continues and as affordability challenges push more households toward renting.
At PIMCO, we continue to favor bonds backed by residential mortgages. We expect home price appreciation to remain “higher for longer,” making residential credit a robust all-weather strategy, in our view.
